FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI

The market is in a rigorous professionalisation phase, but the macro backdrop still matters. Oil remains elevated versus prior months, keeping inflation risk on the radar and limiting how far risk can run without fresh catalysts. For Bitcoin, the 86,000 level is a key reference point. A clean hold would support a base-building process, while failure would likely keep rallies tactical rather than durable. Absent new positive developments from the Middle East, upside may lean medium-term rather than sustained momentum.

Policy is the main swing factor. Markets are monitoring the potential confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in May. A Warsh-led Fed is increasingly discussed as a setup that could accelerate the rate-cut cycle later in 2026, which would be supportive for risk assets, including crypto. In parallel, regulatory momentum in the U.S. is improving. More than 100 firms, including Coinbase, are backing the CLARITY Act, which currently represents the strongest legislative traction in building a workable market-structure framework. Senator Lummis has also confirmed a May markup, keeping the timetable in focus.

On the crypto-native side, two themes stand out. First, the post-quantum debate is moving from theory toward planning. The discussion around BIP-361, described as a “Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset,” signals early groundwork for how Bitcoin could manage future cryptographic transitions. Second, SEC Chair Atkins has launched Project Crypto, including a five-category token taxonomy that classifies most digital assets as non-securities, alongside an SEC-CFTC memorandum of understanding aimed at aligning definitions across agencies. Together, these steps can reduce legal overhang and improve investor confidence, but the market still needs liquidity and follow-through in spot flows to translate policy progress into a stable uptrend.