15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP

The macro set-up is balanced but constructive. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged, and the cooler latest inflation print plus the end of Chair Powell’s term tilt the bias toward a more dovish 2026. New-year rebalancing can add early momentum, while the Bitcoin–gold ratio sits at its lowest since January 2024, a level that has often aligned with relative BTC bottoms. Offsetting this, liquidity remains thin, and geopolitics are a drag, so any upturn still depends on broader participation and steadier spot flows.

Policy and market structure are firming. The Senate’s confirmation of Michael Selig as CFTC Chair, together with a January markup of the CLARITY Act under David Sacks, signals progress toward a federal-level market-structure framework for digital assets. A wider ETF universe and lower frictions could unlock sidelined institutional capital. Late-Q4 inflows into DATs and ETFs support the accumulation narrative, which we will validate through net ETF flows and stablecoin supply.
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Crypto-native catalysts are building. Ethereum’s next major upgrade positions the network for tokenized assets, and Base’s planned compliant token-raise platform improves issuance plumbing. Across altcoins, supply-side tightening continues as projects such as UNI, HYPE, and TAO adjust governance, issuance, and burn mechanics, which is supportive over the medium term. Near term, we prefer liquid large caps until spot volumes improve, while monitoring the Fed decision, CPI, any ETF approvals or staking integration, and institutional DAT allocations for confirmation of a durable turn.