June has long been known as a month of volatility for Bitcoin, and this year proved no different. Despite early optimism driven by favorable CPI data, Bitcoin’s initial price surge was short-lived, with the month ultimately closing at $62.6k.

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Several factors converged to temper the market's enthusiasm. The Federal Reserve's decision to reduce its planned rate cuts from three to just one in 2024 signaled caution. This, coupled with external pressures—Bitcoin miner OTC selling, fears surrounding Mt. Gox redemptions, and the German government’s sale of confiscated Bitcoin—sent a wave of uncertainty through the market. These dynamics were reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which saw a sharp decline from 76 (Greed) to 46 (Fear).

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Altcoins also faced significant challenges, with many retreating to their Q3 2023 averages. However, there were pockets of resilience. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) demonstrated strong staying power, bolstered by the growing optimism around their spot ETFs. Notably, VanEck’s filing to list a spot Solana ETF, combined with potential signals of a shift in the SEC’s stance on an ETH Spot ETF, points to crypto assets increasingly becoming a central topic in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

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Another noteworthy development is the rapid rise of The Open Network (TON), which has established itself as the fastest-growing blockchain of 2024. With its Total Value Locked (TVL) reaching record levels, TON is solidifying its position as a key player in the evolving blockchain ecosystem.

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As we move forward, it is clear that while market fluctuations remain part of the landscape, the growing institutional interest in crypto assets and the emergence of new blockchain leaders will continue to shape the path ahead.

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Portfolio Performance Analysis

FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI Performance:

We made a strategic shift in our portfolio, moving partially back into altcoins to capitalize on favorable prices following recent market drawdowns. The portfolio is now diversified, with a 33% allocation in Bitcoin (BTC) and 26% in Ethereum (ETH), reflecting an overweight position relative to the Benchmark allocation. This tactical approach has resulted in a year-to-date gain of 4.4% for our Exchange-Traded Instrument (ETI), demonstrating the effectiveness of our active management and commitment to optimizing returns for our investors. More about it here.

FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP Performance:

During the market drawdowns in June, we strategically shifted part of our portfolio back into Bitcoin, capitalizing on favorable conditions. This timely move allowed the FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP to outperform Bitcoin for the month, contributing to a year-to-date gain of 2.55%. More about it here.

15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP:

The portfolio has maintained its cash position, strategically awaiting favorable market conditions for re-entry. As a result, the 15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP has achieved an impressive year-to-date gain of 16.51%. More about it here.

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Market Outlook

June, a historically volatile month for Bitcoin, has once again lived up to expectations. As we transition into July, we remain cautiously optimistic. The market appears well-positioned with sufficient liquidity to absorb the upcoming supply from Mt. Gox. Additionally, we anticipate that Ethereum ETFs could receive approval by the end of the summer, as suggested by SEC Chair Gensler. July will also mark the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which we expect to prompt large stablecoins to begin aligning with these new regulatory frameworks.

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Encouragingly, we are starting to see signs of an accumulation phase in altcoins following June’s sell-off. This trend may gain momentum, particularly with the potential approval of an ETH Spot ETF, which would have far-reaching benefits across the DeFi ecosystem, Layer 2 solutions, and key infrastructure and middleware protocols. While this accumulation phase could extend over the summer months, we anticipate a shift in market sentiment as we approach Q4 2024, with increasing appreciation for undervalued altcoins, especially those launched in this cycle.

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I extend my gratitude for your attention and engagement. Your questions and insights enrich our collective understanding of the crypto market. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any further queries or reflections. Together, let’s continue to unravel the growth opportunities of the crypto universe.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.