September marked a milestone for Bitcoin, delivering a record-breaking 7.3% return—its best September performance ever. This remarkable rebound was driven by the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut, the first in over four years since the pandemic-induced cuts of 2020. With macroeconomic conditions easing, optimism swept through the crypto markets, boosting not only Bitcoin but also key altcoins. The resurgence of the AI-crypto sector further highlighted digital assets’ potential role in powering an AI-driven future.

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Institutional momentum was evident as mid-September brought a shift to positive ETF net flows. Notably, BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings reached a record 360,000 BTC, underscoring Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value. In addition, the SEC’s approval of options trading on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is expected to deepen liquidity, inviting greater speculation and institutional engagement in Bitcoin ETFs, further strengthening Bitcoin’s position in diversified portfolios.

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On the macroeconomic front, the broader environment continued to favor risk assets. The European Central Bank cut interest rates to 3.5%, and China introduced fresh stimulus measures, which supported market sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential race added a layer of market intrigue. Projections from Standard Chartered suggest that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end if Trump secures victory, or $75,000 if Harris prevails. Both candidates have embraced the crypto sector, with Harris notably pledging support for blockchain innovation, a significant shift in the political discourse.

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Portfolio Performance Analysis

FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI Performance:

In September, the portfolio made a strategic shift towards altcoins, reducing its exposure to both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), guided by cycle analysis. A core holding, Sui, surged by 133%, further validating our thesis on scalable blockchain solutions. This strategic adjustment enabled the portfolio to outperform both the CCI30 Index and Bitcoin for the month. The ETI ended September with a strong positive performance of 12.68%. More about it here.

FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP Performance:

The portfolio reallocated 40% of its weight into a selection of altcoins, guided by an analysis of Bitcoin dominance. As a result, the FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP concluded the month with a positive performance of 8.79%. More about it here.

15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP:

The portfolio reallocated 40% of its weight into a selection of altcoins, guided by an analysis of Bitcoin dominance. As of now, the 15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP has achieved a year-to-date gain of 11.77%. More about it here.

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Market Outlook

As we move into October, market dynamics point to heightened volatility, with open interest remaining at elevated levels. This suggests the potential for significant price swings, particularly in the early part of the month. While positive sentiment continues to build in the crypto market, its sustainability will depend on renewed retail interest and the return of liquidity into the space. A resurgence of retail capital would further bolster the current bullish outlook.

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Altcoins are especially well-positioned to benefit from the current macro environment and seasonal trends. After two years of underperformance, we anticipate a strong rebound in the altcoin market, supported by favorable market conditions and a broader shift towards risk-on sentiment. This aligns with the typical seasonal strength we observe in the crypto market during this time of year.

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Though the SEC’s recent postponement of decisions on BlackRock and Bitwise spot Ethereum ETFs has created a brief pause in regulatory clarity, the potential rollout of Ethereum ETF options in Q4 could bring fresh liquidity and speculation into the market. This development would likely set the stage for a robust end-of-year rally, particularly if accompanied by strong retail participation.

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I extend my gratitude for your attention and engagement. Your questions and insights enrich our collective understanding of the crypto market. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any further queries or reflections. Together, let’s continue to unravel the growth opportunities of the crypto universe.‍

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.