Entering 2026, we are operating in a macro environment where risk appears to transmit faster and with greater non-linearity than at any point since 2008. Global debt is now above USD 315 trillion (approximately 330% of world GDP), and more than USD 80 trillion rolls over the next three years. This rollover profile alone suggests that interest-rate volatility will remain elevated. We saw this clearly in 2023–2024: rate-volatility swings reached the largest levels in more than a decade, even as equity markets printed new highs. That divergence is often a signal of a more fragile system.

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TradFi liquidity has also become far more concentrated. In the U.S., roughly  one-third of equity trading volume now runs through ETFs. In fixed income, the top five bond ETFs account for more than USD 150 billion of AUM, and when flows reverse, they effectively dictate price discovery in the underlying. This structural feature helps explain why dislocations in 2020 and again in 2023 were so abrupt. Liquidity appears abundant until it suddenly is not. This structure matters for crypto because risk-off events in TradFi spill over into Bitcoin and Ethereum much faster than before.

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Bitcoin itself continues to evolve. In 2024–2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over USD 60 billion of net inflows. BlackRock and Fidelity together now hold more than 1 million BTC (roughly 5% of total supply). This is a form of liquidity concentration that crypto has not previously experienced. It increases legitimacy and accessibility, but it also strengthens the link between ETF flow regimes and short-term price dynamics. At the same time, Bitcoin’s supply mechanics remain fixed. Post-halving issuance is now approximately 0.8% annually, well below gold’s estimated 1.5%–2.0% annual supply growth.

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The debate about whether Bitcoin is a risk asset or a hard asset will continue. The data is mixed: when global liquidity expands, Bitcoin’s beta is high (correlations with Nasdaq were 0.6–0.7 at peaks). Yet during periods of monetary uncertainty,  for example, the U.S. regional banking stress in 2023 ,  Bitcoin outperformed gold by a wide margin. Gold was up 7% that quarter, Bitcoin was up over 70%. This tells us the narrative is shifting: it is still a risk-on asset in flows-driven markets, but in true confidence shocks it behaves more like a hedge “outside the system”.

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These insights are part of our updated Market Outlook 2026. To read more, please download here.

For more information, please visit our website or contact our team.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.