July was a month of heightened volatility for the crypto market, characterized by substantial price swings. Bitcoin’s journey was particularly eventful, with its price initially dipping to $53k before surging to $70k and eventually closing just above $64k. This 30% fluctuation underscored the market’s instability. Meanwhile, altcoins struggled to keep pace, as Bitcoin's market dominance surged to a three-year high of 55.4%.

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Several key factors contributed to this volatility. The much-anticipated distribution of nearly 47,229 BTC from the Mt. Gox estate commenced, with exchanges confirming the receipt and distribution of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to creditors. This sparked considerable market activity, as Bitcoin miners also capitalized on rising prices, reducing their balances to levels last seen in April 2019. Adding to the market’s dynamic, U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump made waves at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville by pledging to fire SEC Chair Gensler and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.

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In a significant development later in the month, Spot Ethereum ETFs were introduced, marking a pivotal milestone for the crypto space. On July 23, nine Spot Ethereum ETFs debuted, generating over $1 billion in trading volume on their first day. Despite this, Ethereum’s market response was muted, as its burn rate plummeted by 67% in Q2, leading to one of its most inflationary periods in recent quarters. Notably, Solana surpassed Ethereum in weekly fee revenue for the first time, underscoring its growing market prominence. This shift coincided with confirmed plans for Spot Solana ETFs from multiple issuers, as evidenced by a recent Cboe filing.

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Portfolio Performance Analysis

FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI Performance:

The portfolio made a strategic shift from Bitcoin into Ethereum while also increasing exposure to altcoins, positioning itself ahead of a potential altcoin season that could emerge between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Despite these adjustments, the Exchange-Traded Instrument (ETI) currently reflects a year-to-date performance of -2.27%. More about it here.

FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP Performance:

In July, the portfolio was strategically reallocated to Bitcoin at favorable prices, allowing it to slightly outperform Bitcoin for the month. As a result, the FiCAS Dynamic Crypto ETP has achieved a year-to-date gain of 4.48%. More about it here.

15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP:

In July, the portfolio was strategically reallocated to Bitcoin at favorable prices, enabling it to slightly outperform Bitcoin for the month. As a result, the 15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP has achieved a year-to-date gain of 18.00%. More about it here.

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Market Outlook

As we move into August and September—historically low-return months for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market—we anticipate a more subdued performance, potentially influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the market will see nearly $1 billion in token unlocks across various projects, which could lead to heightened activity as these tokens enter circulation.

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A critical area of focus will be the Ripple vs. SEC case, with XRP gaining momentum due to growing optimism surrounding a potential settlement. A favorable outcome in this case could have far-reaching implications for the entire crypto industry, and may fuel further price appreciation for XRP.

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On the macroeconomic front, a potential rate cut in September could provide a positive boost to market sentiment, offering support for digital assets. Furthermore, the upcoming U.S. presidential election brings significant attention to the crypto sector, with candidates such as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris incorporating crypto policies into their campaigns. This marks a pivotal moment for the industry, as digital assets become a prominent topic in the political landscape for the first time, underscoring the growing influence of crypto in shaping the future.

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I extend my gratitude for your attention and engagement. Your questions and insights enrich our collective understanding of the crypto market. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any further queries or reflections. Together, let’s continue to unravel the growth opportunities of the crypto universe.‍

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.