Market Commentary

February remained true to its reputation as a volatile month, with Bitcoin dropping 17.39%. Market uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies triggered early liquidations, pushing Bitcoin lower and sending altcoins back to September lows. Further pressure came from a higher-than-expected CPI print, sustained ETF outflows, and the $1.5 billion Bybit hack—the largest in crypto history. The redistribution of FTX holdings added to the selling momentum, deepening market fears. By month-end, sentiment hit extreme lows, with the Fear &Greed Index plunging to 10, a level last seen in the 2022 bear market.

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During the month, the SEC dropped lawsuits against Ripple, Coinbase, and Uniswap, reducing regulatory pressure on the industry. Meanwhile, spot ETF filings surged, with Cardano, Polkadot, and Litecoin joining Ripple and Solana as leading candidates. Abu Dhabi’s Sovereign Wealth Fund’s $436 million investment in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF reinforced institutional confidence, signaling growing long-term acceptance of crypto assets.

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Market Outlook

Following February’s market correction, March presents an opportunity for renewed momentum. Post-rally deleveraging cycles are common in crypto, and with key events now behind, the market could stabilize. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on March 19 will be a pivotal moment—while a rate cut remains unlikely, a small 25bps reduction is not entirely off the table. Market expectations will largely hinge on the Fed’s forward guidance, shaping sentiment for risk assets, including crypto.

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Trump’s pro-crypto policies remain the primary growth catalyst. From the SEC’s evolving stance on crypto assets to ETF expansion and the administration’s focus on building a national strategic crypto reserve, U.S.-based blockchain projects stand to benefit. Once short-term headwinds subside, these policies could provide long-term structural support for the market.

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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, set for release in March, introduces key UX and wallet security enhancements, aiming to improve user accessibility and network efficiency. As fundamentals strengthen and regulatory clarity improves, March could lay the groundwork for a more sustained uptrend.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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