Market Commentary

October opened with seasonal optimism and a new Bitcoin all-time high at 126,000 on 6 October, followed by consolidation. On 11 October the market suffered the single largest liquidation event in crypto history after President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs on China alongside export controls. A record 19.3 billion dollars was liquidated within 24 hours. Thin off-peak liquidity amplified stress, and some altcoins fell 60 to 80 percent intraday. A modest rebound followed but returns stayed weak. Bitcoin closed at minus 3.92 percent and Ether at minus 7.18 percent, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw 536 million dollars of outflows.

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Policy and flows were mixed. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points amid softer labor data. Bitcoin briefly rebounded toward 110,000 after the meeting as U.S.–China trade rhetoric eased, although Chair Powell cautioned that a December cut is not assured. With U.S. data releases delayed by the shutdown, traders leaned on diplomatic signals for macro direction.

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Adoption and market structure continued to advance. Fidelity enabled direct SOL purchases for standard brokerage clients. Digital Asset Treasury holdings surpassed 3.31 million ETH, about 2.8 percent of supply, toward a 5 percent target. New products listed, including a Solana Staking ETF, a Litecoin ETF, and the Canary HBAR ETF. The UK lifted its retail ban on crypto ETNs, Luxembourg became the first eurozone investor in Bitcoin ETFs, and Morgan Stanley expanded crypto access to retirement accounts. Corporate activity remained active, with the Dogecoin Foundation pursuing a listing via a merger with Brag House and a new Solana and Avalanche DATs announced.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin continues to trade like a risk asset, closely tracking U.S. equities. The year’s highest SPX–BTC correlation at 0.44 underscores equity-led directionality, while macro risks persist. Policy remains uncertain with ambiguity around further cuts, and U.S.–China tariff tensions are an ongoing overhang. Despite Bitcoin’s historically positive average returns in November, overall sentiment is cautious. In the near term, an equity-market stabilisation would support crypto via the elevated correlation, whereas renewed equity weakness could cap upside.

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Within crypto, treasury buyers and DAT vehicles remain the primary sources of demand, and that leadership is intact. The window for additional U.S. altcoin spot ETF listings over the next two months could widen participation into year-end. At the same time, the rally in privacy-focused coins may be flagging a hidden layer of regulatory and compliance risk as we approach December.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.